Where is Canada’s economy headed?
Notes for the new finance minister
Canada’s new finance minister Bill Morneau is stepping into the role amid great uncertainty for the nation’s economic prospects. The economy has perked up in recent months, but languished in a brief technical recession to start the year. Still, the global outlook is shaky, and with abundant supply keeping a lid on oil prices, Canada’s resource-rich provinces may struggle for the foreseeable future.
So where is the economy headed? Two new research notes – from Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Bank of Nova Scotia – offer some projections.
Real GDP forecasts
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015F | 2016F | |
| British Columbia | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.3% |
| Alberta | 3.8% | 4.4% | -1.6% | 0.4% |
| Saskatchewan | 5.0% | 1.4% | -0.6% | 1.0% |
| Manitoba | 2.2% | 1.1% | 2.4% | 2.2% |
| Ontario | 1.3% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.1% |
| Quebec | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.3% |
| New Brunswick | -0.5% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.9% |
| Nova Scotia | 0.3% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 1.8% |
| Prince Edward Island | 2.0% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.6% |
| Newfoundland & Labrador | 7.2% | -2.9% | -3.6% | -0.2% |
| Canada | 2.0% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 1.7% |
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Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, Statscan
Projected jobless rates (annual average, %)
| 2000-14 | 2014 | 2015F | 2016F | 2017F | |
| Canada | 7.1 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 6.8 |
| British Columbia | 6.7 | 6.1 | 6 | 6 | 5.9 |
| Alberta | 4.8 | 4.7 | 5.9 | 6.2 | 5.9 |
| Saskatchewan | 4.9 | 3.8 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 4.9 |
| Manitoba | 5 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 5 |
| Ontario | 7.2 | 7.3 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 6.6 |
| Quebec | 8.1 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 7.6 | 7.5 |
| New Brunswick | 9.6 | 9.9 | 10.2 | 10 | 9.8 |
| Nova Scotia | 8.9 | 9 | 8.7 | 8.5 | 8.3 |
| Prince Edward Island | 11.2 | 10.6 | 10.8 | 10.6 | 10.5 |
| Newfoundland & Labrador | 14.4 | 11.9 | 12.7 | 13 | 12.9 |
Source: Scotiabank
Economic outlook (annual % change)
| 2000-14 | 2015F | 2016F | 2017F | |
| Real GDP | 2.2 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 2.3 |
| Consumer Spending | 2.9 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.0 |
| Residential Investment | 3.8 | 3.3 | -0.4 | -1.2 |
| Business Investment | 3.4 | -7.5 | -0.4 | 3.6 |
| Exports | 1.1 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 4.6 |
| Imports | 3.2 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 3.3 |
| Pre-Tax Corporate Profits | 5.3 | -10.0 | 7.0 | 8.5 |
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